Ukraine and US Unable to Conclude Rare Earth Minerals Deal
This past Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump convened in Washington with the intention of signing a deal that would allow the US to tap into Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources. Nevertheless, the session deviated from its intended purpose and concluded with a tense discussion involving Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. After Zelensky’s premature exit, the White House issued a statement confirming that the agreement remained unsigned.
Prior to the meeting, Zelensky had shown optimism, suggesting this “initial” agreement might lead to expanded collaboration. However, he acknowledged that Ukraine still needed to obtain security assurances from the US, which was a major point for him. Trump contended that the agreement could enable American taxpayers to “recover their funds” from the assistance given to Ukraine during the conflict, but emphasized that European nations should primarily handle Kyiv’s security needs.
What Are the Terms of the Agreement?
On Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Kyiv and Washington had finalized a draft of the agreement, which was released on Friday morning. The deal outlined the creation of an “investment fund” to support Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts.
Shmyhal noted that the fund would be jointly managed by both countries on an “equal footing.” As per the agreement, Ukraine would contribute 50% of its future income from state-controlled mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. These funds would then be put toward projects focused on improving Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic development.
The US, meanwhile, promised ongoing financial support to help build a stable and thriving Ukraine, in accordance with US law. The terms of the agreement also indicated that the US would hold the largest allowable portion of the fund under American regulations.
Disagreements Over Mineral Rights and Financial Terms
The specific terms of the minerals agreement seem to have intensified the friction between Trump and Zelensky. Initially, the US demanded a $500 billion stake in Ukraine’s mineral resources, which Zelensky turned down. It has been reported that this demand was subsequently rescinded.
Tymofiy Mylovanov, who previously served as a Ukrainian minister and now leads the Kyiv School of Economics, stated that Washington’s original proposal threatened Ukraine’s sovereignty and risked economic downfall. However, he observed that the US has adjusted its stance, presenting a fairer agreement centered on joint ownership, without making claims on past assistance. He believes this revised approach could eventually advantage Ukraine.
Trump has highlighted the financial perspective, claiming on Tuesday that the US has given Ukraine roughly $300 billion to $350 billion in aid and that a minerals agreement could help recoup this expenditure. Conversely, the Kiel Institute, a German research organization, estimates that the real US support totals $119 billion.
Does the Agreement Include Security Guarantees?
A key issue for Zelensky has been obtaining clear security assurances from the US. On Wednesday, he affirmed that no such assurances had been secured.
“Including a provision on security guarantees for Ukraine was essential,” Zelensky commented.
When questioned about possibly abandoning the agreement without security assurances, he replied: “I aim for a NATO pathway or something comparable. Without security guarantees, there will be no ceasefire, and nothing will operate.”
Despite the lack of direct security commitments, the agreement includes language indicating US support for Ukraine’s pursuit of security guarantees to achieve lasting peace.
Zelensky maintained that Ukraine would not finalize the agreement until he and Trump reached an understanding on security assurances and determined how to integrate them into the preliminary deal. Trump, however, downplayed the idea of direct US security guarantees, stating that such responsibilities should now be shouldered by Europe. He added that the presence of American workers in Ukraine would offer “automatic security.”
Zelensky initially proposed the idea of a minerals agreement as a way to offer the US a concrete motivation to maintain its support for Ukraine. Trump has implied that, in return for granting mineral access, Ukraine would ensure the “right to keep fighting,” and that the US would continue providing military gear and ammunition “until an agreement with Russia is achieved.”
The US president has also asserted that Russia is amenable to the presence of European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has rejected this notion.
What is the Timeline for Signing the Agreement?
Trump initially stated that the deal would be signed at Friday’s White House meeting. While Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal confirmed that a final version of the agreement had been prepared, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, clarified that only a framework agreement was set to be signed.
Ultimately, no agreement was signed. Instead, the gathering turned into a clash between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. During the heated exchange, Trump accused Zelensky of not showing enough gratitude for US support and cautioned him against “risking World War Three.”
“You need to make a deal, or we’re out,” Trump reportedly told Zelensky. “You don’t have the leverage.”
Zelensky, in response, insisted that there could be “no compromises” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Shortly after and earlier than planned, Zelensky departed from the White House. Subsequently, the White House declared that the agreement was not completed, with Trump personally calling off the signing event.
Trump later shared on Truth Social, accusing Zelensky of having “disrespected the US in its esteemed Oval Office” and declaring: “He can return when he is prepared for peace.”
At this point, it remains unclear whether or when the agreement will be signed.
Ukraine’s Abundance of Minerals
Kyiv estimates that Ukraine holds around 5% of the world’s “critical raw materials.” This includes approximately 19 million metric tons of confirmed graphite reserves, placing Ukraine among the top five global suppliers of this mineral, which is crucial for electric vehicle battery production.
Additionally, Ukraine has significant deposits of titanium and lithium. The country also claims to hold substantial reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals essential for military technology, wind turbines, and electronic devices—though some experts dispute the exact scale of these reserves.
Further complicating the situation, some of the mineral-abundant regions in Ukraine are currently under Russian control. Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko states that mineral deposits valued at approximately $350 billion are situated in areas occupied by Russia.
An additional challenge to extracting minerals is the extensive presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that about 25% of Ukraine’s territory is affected, especially in the war-ravaged eastern areas.
Time poses another issue. Even if the agreement reaches completion, it may take years before the mining and export of these resources deliver concrete economic advantages.
“These resources are not sitting in a warehouse waiting for shipment—they must be developed,” Mylovanov explained. “If the US invests, it could ultimately benefit all parties.”
What is Russia’s Response?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet made any remarks regarding the reported specifics of the US-Ukraine agreement. However, on Monday, he informed Russian state television that Moscow is ready to “offer” mineral resources to American firms for joint ventures, which includes mining in Russia’s “new territories”—referring to the occupied regions of eastern Ukraine.
Putin dismissed the potential US-Ukraine deal as insignificant, stating that Russia “undoubtedly has, I want to emphasize, significantly more of these resources than Ukraine.”
“Regarding the new territories, we are open to involving foreign partners in developing these areas, which have rejoined the Russian Federation,” he stated.
In the meantime, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated on Tuesday that the situation is still evolving: “We’ll see whether [Ukraine and the US] will sign this agreement or something else. No official announcements have been made on this issue yet.”
